Elite Competition, Social Movements, and Election Violence in Nigeria

Election violence varies significantly within countries, yet how and why are undertheorized. Although existing scholarship has shown national-level economic, institutional, contextual factors increase a country's risk for during elections, these studies cannot explain elites organize election in some localities but not others. An analysis of gubernatorial elections Nigeria reveals the conditions under which recruit popular social-movement actors pre-election violence. Gubernatorial intensely competitive when agreements between governors local ruling party over distribution state patronage break down. To oust their rivals consolidate power, reformist groups voter mobilization. Conversely, ruling-party aligned is to be distributed, outcome agreed well advance. In this scenario, there little incentive enlist social movement Case Ijaw Youth Council Boko Haram provide empirical support argument. The theory evidence help subnational variation as relationship intraparty politics speak broader questions about political order